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The Critical Value of Project Risk Management - Why do we have to manage Projects and Risks differently ?
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Desc: The Critical Value of Project Risk Management - Why do we have to manage Projects and Risks differently ?
The presentations tries to highlight the reasons why we have to manage projects and risks differently than years ago. There major reasons have been identified
1) The world becomes flat according to Thomas Friedman
2) There is the inconvenient truth and global warming
3) And the world is changing rapidly
Slideshow Transcript
- Slide 1: IQPC Project Risk Management 2008 Brisbane, Australia The Critical Value of Project Risk Management - Why do we have to manage Projects and Risks differently ? - Torsten J. Koerting www.TORSTENKOERTING.com
- Slide 2: THANK YOU
- Slide 9: www.torstenkoerting.com
- Slide 10: www.paragliding 365.com
- Slide 13: Defining the Critical Value of Project Risk Management Torsten J. Koerting www.torstenkoerting.com
- Slide 14: Risk (definition) “Probability or threat of a damage, injury, liability, loss, or other negative occurrence, caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and which may be neutralized through premeditated action.”
- Slide 15: Risk (definition) “The quantifiable likelihood of loss or less-than-expected returns.”
- Slide 16: Risk (definition) “Risk is a concept that denotes a potential negative impact to some characteristic of value that may arise from a future event.”
- Slide 17: RISK = (probability of risk occurring) x (impact of risk occurring)
- Slide 18: “Take calculated risks. That is quite different from being rash.” - George S. Patton (1885 – 1945)
- Slide 19: “The policy of being too cautious is the greatest risk of all.” - Jawaharlal Nehru (1889 - 1964)
- Slide 20: Why does Risk Management becomes MORE and more important ?
- Slide 21: What has changed the way we HAVE to manage projects and their risks ?
- Slide 22: The World Inconvenient The World is flat Truth is changing
- Slide 23: The Fall of the Berlin Wall …
- Slide 24: … ended the cold war …
- Slide 25: … and granted access to new markets for products, labor and material.
- Slide 26: The Internet … … created easy global competition and increased the ability to share information
- Slide 27: The Microsoft Office Suite …
- Slide 28: … and the HTML and HTTP protocols …
- Slide 30: Open – Sourcing …
- Slide 31: … enables writing software so that it can be easily shared, improved and given access to.
- Slide 32: Outsourcing …
- Slide 33: … is moving lower value functions to other firms, in other countries for a lower cost.
- Slide 34: Off shoring …
- Slide 35: … is moving the production of goods into other countries.
- Slide 36: Supply Chaining …
- Slide 37: … by partnering with other companies to receive goods when needed.
- Slide 38: In sourcing …
- Slide 39: … by sourcing whole processes to other companies
- Slide 40: Informing …
- Slide 41: … by getting answers to almost any question within seconds
- Slide 43: Information Steroids …
- Slide 44: … by having all this information available at your fingertips
- Slide 45: The World 1. The Fall of the Berlin Wall is flat 2. The Internet 3. Work-Flow Software 4. Open-Sourcing 5. Outsourcing 6. Off-Shoring 7. Supply-Chaining 8. In-Sourcing 9. In-Forming 10.Information Steroids
- Slide 47: With Increased Complexity …
- Slide 48: … there are more things to think about …
- Slide 49: … there are more time zones to overcome …
- Slide 50: … there are more people to deal with …
- Slide 51: … and with more people there are more cultures do deal with …
- Slide 52: … more things can ( will ) fail …
- Slide 53: … and will take longer.
- Slide 54: With Increased Competition …
- Slide 55: … continuous learning is required ...
- Slide 56: … and well developed personal skills.
- Slide 57: The World The Impact : is flat 1. Increased Complexity More things can fail More things to think about More time zones Different cultures More people More points of failures 2. Increased Competition Continuous learning Improve personal skills
- Slide 58: The World Inconvenient The World is flat Truth is changing
- Slide 59: Global Warming …
- Slide 60: … increased temperature ...
- Slide 61: Svalbard Global Seed Vault
- Slide 64: … rising see levels ...
- Slide 66: … water shortage ...
- Slide 67: … bigger storms than ever ...
- Slide 68: … and one after the other ...
- Slide 69: … disappearing lakes ...
- Slide 70: Before After 1972 2001
- Slide 71: … and more wildfires ever.
- Slide 72: What can YOU do about it ?
- Slide 74: OK … there is something positive about it.
- Slide 75: Shortage in resources …
- Slide 78: • Demand higher than supply • Supply controlled by OPEC and former USSR • Demand will increase
- Slide 79: … water is disappearing …
- Slide 81: … and food is used as ethanol.
- Slide 83: • Oil • Water • Food
- Slide 84: Inconvenient 1. Global Warming Truth Sea Levels rising Water shortage More storms than ever Lakes disappear More wildfires 2. Shortage in Resources Resource shortage War for resources
- Slide 86: … sharpen our senses …
- Slide 87: … deal with new requirements …
- Slide 88: … more change as you go …
- Slide 90: Inconvenient The Impact : Truth 1. Sharpen the senses 2. Deal with new Requirements 3. More Change while you run 4. Higher Risk profile needs higher contingency
- Slide 91: The World Inconvenient The World is flat Truth is changing
- Slide 92: … the risk nobody had on its register …
- Slide 93: \"Today, the store of human knowledge doubles every five years.\" - Bill Clinton, 2005
- Slide 94: … 9 billions shortly …
- Slide 95: … on a flat and …
- Slide 96: … and warmer world.
- Slide 97: The World 1. Terrorism is changing 2. Increase of Knowledge 3. Growth in Population 4. Flatter 5. Warmer
- Slide 99: … try to know what you don’t know …
- Slide 100: … identify the right contingency …
- Slide 101: … and manage the risk and not just the project.
- Slide 102: The The Impact : Impact 1. Look at risks we don’t know yet 2. Identify Contingency 3. Manage Risks instead of projects
- Slide 103: The World Inconvenient The World is flat Truth is changing
- Slide 104: The World 1. The Fall of the Berlin Wall is flat 2. The Internet 3. Work-Flow Software 4. Open-Sourcing 5. Outsourcing 6. Off-Shoring 7. Supply-Chaining 8. In-Sourcing 9. In-Forming 10.Information Steroids
- Slide 105: Inconvenient 1. Global Warming Truth Sea Levels rising Water shortage More storms than ever Lakes disappear More wildfires 2. Shortage in Resources Running out of resources The resource war Political Requirements
- Slide 106: The World 1. Terrorism is changing 2. Increase of Knowledge 3. Growth in Population 4. Flatter 5. Warmer
- Slide 107: Therefore
- Slide 108: … L E A R N ...
- Slide 109: … F I N D O U T…
- Slide 110: …MANAGE RISK…
- Slide 111: … and S T A R T T O D A Y !
- Slide 112: THANK YOU
- Slide 114: Question … and I do not have an answer …
- Slide 116: The ‘Answer’ is always …
- Slide 117: THANK YOU
- Slide 118: Picture Credits ( 1 / 3 ) inconvenient truth - http://www.flickr.com/photos/galerieopweg/ inconvenient truth v002 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/yoshigi/ The world is flat - http://www.flickr.com/photos/obriendigital/ The world is changing - number of books - http://www.flickr.com/photos/babblingdweeb/ The world is changing - number of books - v002 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/flyzipper/ 1430 enciclopedia - http://www.flickr.com/photos/evaekeblad/ balancing lady - http://www.flickr.com/photos/orangebrompton/ important - http://www.flickr.com/photos/valeriebb/ billboard - http://www.flickr.com/photos/mjlaflaca/ Obama change - http://www.flickr.com/photos/tsevis/ Fall of Berlin Wall - http://www.flickr.com/photos/gavinandrewstewart/ Microsoft Office Candy - http://www.flickr.com/photos/sunfox/ HTML - http://www.flickr.com/photos/kk/ Latop Beach - http://www.flickr.com/photos/zzathras777/ Open Sourcing - http://www.flickr.com/photos/martinbekkelund/ Big Crowd - http://www.flickr.com/photos/richevenhouse/ cold war one - http://www.flickr.com/photos/pingnews/ New Markets - http://www.flickr.com/photos/pnp/ Outsourcing 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/danzden/ Outsourcing 3 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/kafkan/ Offshoring 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/photohome_uk/ Offshoring 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/trotzenberg/ Offshoring 1b - http://www.flickr.com/photos/taylar/ Supply Chaining 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/nimrodbar/ Supply Chaining 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/drewesque/ Insourcing 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/zyphbear/ Insourcing 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/liveu4/
- Slide 119: Picture Credits ( 1 / 3 ) Informing 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/ask-for-peace/ Informing 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/julianbleecker/ Infroming 3 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/gedankenstuecke/ Info Steroids 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/listelys/ Info Steroids 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/chanc/ Project Manager - http://www.flickr.com/photos/floongle/ conference 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrtopf/ California Bush fires - http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Oct2003/California.TMOA2003299_lrg.jpg storm 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/gisuser/ storm 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/lakerae/ lake 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/mashroms/ lake chad 1 - nasa.gov lake chad 2 - nasa.gov seed vault 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/bzzzt/ rising see levels - http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise_png - Robert A. Rohde sea levels 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/2kool/ water shortage - http://www.flickr.com/photos/mckaysavage/ time zone - http://www.flickr.com/photos/mickyates/ more people 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/inyucho/ more people 3 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/msjacoby/ cultures - http://www.flickr.com/photos/untitlism/ longer - http://www.flickr.com/photos/swamibu/ break 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/jnsabino/ more things 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/brixton/ global warming 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/hodac/ global warming 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/focalplane/ global warming 3 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/a_siegel/
- Slide 120: Picture Credits ( 1 / 3 ) oil supply 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/falsecognate/ oil supply 2 - http://seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/ oil supply 3 - http://www.wisergroup.net/img/oil-graph.jpg water shortage 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/sunrise7/ water shortage 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/pierre_pouliquin/ regulations 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/two-wrongs/ terrorism 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/sis/ knowledge 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/ flat world 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/aidg/ warmer world 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/adrianol/ 42 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/howzey/ dont panic - http://www.flickr.com/photos/fboosman/ question - http://www.flickr.com/photos/eleaf/ learning - http://www.flickr.com/photos/yewenyi/ competencies 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/38234414@N00/ lifeguard 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/john/ requirements 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/davidquick/ change requests 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/yyq123/ contingency 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/grantmac/ open door 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/eyeballstew/ umbrellas 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/greentea/ wet woman 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/maxedaperture/ ethanol 1 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/jonathanvlarocca/ ethanol 2 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/swanksalot/ ethanol 3 - http://www.flickr.com/photos/whatknot/
