FEMIP Report on Climate Change in the Mediterranean

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1. Page 1: Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean Plan Bleu Regional Activity Center Sophia Antipolis july 2008
2. Page 2: Study carried out under the responsibility of Henri-Luc THIBAULT, Director of Plan Bleu. Study coordinated by Stéphane QUEFELEC, in charge of energy/climate issues at Plan Bleu. Plan Bleu would like to thank: Main authors: Yves TOURRE, Patrick VAN GRUNDERBEECK from Médias France; Houda ALLAL, Habib ELANDALOUSIE, Thomas NIESOR et Jean-Loup ROUYER from OME ; Frédéric BLANC from the Institut de la Méditerranée/FEMISE ; Stéphane POUFFARY et Charlotte COLLEUX from ADEME- France, Cellule Expertise Internationale pour la Maitrise de l’Energie ; Rafik MISSAOUÏ, Consultant - Tunisia ; Nejib OSMAN from ANME-Tunisia ; Rafik Y. GEORGY and Adel T. SOLIMAN consultants -Egypt ; Henri BOYE, Elisabeth COUDERT, Céline GIMET, Silvia LARIA, Patrice MIRAN, Jean de MONTGOLFIER, Roméo PRENGERE, Stéphane QUEFELEC and Gaëlle THIVET, from Plan Bleu. Members of the steering committee: Ms Anca-Diana BARBU, Programme Manager, Energy and environment, European Environment Agency; Mr Filipo GIORGI, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physis ; Mr Magdi IBRAHIM, Coordinateur des programmes d’environnement et de développement durable ENDA Maghreb; Mr Antoine-Tristan MOCILNIKAR, Ministère de l'Environnement, du Développement et de l'Aménagement Durables (MEDAD/France), Mr Roberto VIGOTTI, President of the « renewable energy and sustainable development committee » of the OME. Experts who provided valuable comments, in particular : Mohamed BLINDA, Luc DASSONVILLE, Jean-Pierre GIRAUD, Yasmin GUESSOUM, Pierre ICARD, Oliver KESERUE, Florence PINTUS, Cécile RODDIER-QUEFELEC, Caroline SCHEURLE, from Plan Bleu. Virginia ALZINA and Mar SANTACANA from MAP/Clean Production Center. Samir ALLAL, University of Versailles. Philippe GUINET, Alain NADEAU, Andrea PINNA from the European Investment Bank. National and regional expert who contributed to Plan Bleu activities about energy and about water in 2006-2007 and who allow a large collect of information for plan Bleu which are used in this report. Plan Bleu editing and page layout team : Isabelle JHORE, Nadège PLACET, Bassima SAÏDI, Pascal BELLEC. Brigitte ULMAN, communication officer, who contributed to the organisation of the press conference held in Paris on the 1st July of 2008. Partner institutions : − The European Investment Bank which is the main sponsor of the study: The study is financed under the FEMIP Trust Fund. This Fund, which was established in 2004 and has been financed – to date – by 15 EU Member States and the European Commission, is intended to support the development of the private sector via the financing of studies and technical assistance measures and the provision of private equity − ADEME, who participated to the financing of the translation − Other partner institutions : Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie The designations employed and the data presentation in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the publisher or the participating organizations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, region or city, or of its authorities, or of the delineation of its frontiers or boundaries. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the view of other institutions partner of Plan Bleu or of countries bordering the Mediterranean. The authors take full responsibility for the contents of this report. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect the view of the European Investment Bank. ii
3. Page 3: CONTENT Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ___________________________________________________ iv GENERAL CONCLUSION __________________________________________________xi GENERAL INTRODUCTION _______________________________________________ xii PART 1 Climate change in the Mediterranean: scientific knowledge, impacts and green house gas emissions Chapter 1 Climate change and impacts during the 21st Century __________________ 1-3 Chapter 2 Review of the Economic Literature on Impacts of Climate Change in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries ______________________ 2-1 Chapter 3 Carbon Dioxide emissions from energy use in the Mediterranean economies: trends and patterns ___________________________________ 3-1 PART 2 Mitigation of climate change: toward a low carbon energy sector Chapter 4 Energy in the Mediterranean: Situation and outlook ___________________ 4-3 Chapter 5 Economic simulation of energy development strategies in the Southern countries of the Mediterranean: Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia _____________ 5-1 Chapter 6 Renewable energy and rational energy use in the South and East Mediterranean countries: current situation and outlook ________________ 6-1 Chapter 7 How much does cost the change of scenario toward a low carbon energy sector? A. Tunisia ______________________________________________________ 7-3 B. Egypt _______________________________________________________ 7-35 Chapter 8 The electricity sector challenges, related CO2 emissions and potential solutions _______________________________________________________ 8-1 PART 3 Vulnerability and Adaptation of the energy sector Chapter 9 Wooded lands, climate change and energy in the Mediterranean ________ 9-3 Chapter 10 Water for energy/energy for water and climate change in the Mediterranean _________________________________________________ 10-1 Chapter 11 Cross-cutting challenges: energy/tourism, cities/energy and climate change _________________________________________________________ 11-1
4. Page 4: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Mediterranean: A “hot spot” of climate change Since 1970, South-Western Europe (Iberian peninsula, southern France) has reported a temperature rise of about 2°C (IPCC 2007). This warming is also felt in North Africa, though it is more difficult to quantify due to an incomplete observation network. For the Mediterranean region, climate experts anticipate during the 21st century: • An increase in air temperature in the range of 2.2 C° to 5.1 C° for the countries of Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region over the period 2080 – 2099 with respect to the period 1980 – 1999 (IPCC 2007, scenario A1B); • A significant decrease in rainfall, ranging between -4 and -27 % for the countries of Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region (while the countries of Northern Europe will report a rise between 0 and 16 %) (IPCC 2007, scenario A1B); • Increase in drought periods manifested by a high frequency of days during which the temperature would exceed 30 °C (Giannakopoulos et al. 2005). Extreme events, such as heat waves, droughts or floods, are likely to be more frequent and violent. • An increase of the sea level which, according to some specific studies, could be around 35 cm up to the end of the century. Annual mean variation of air temperatures in summer (°C) – 2070-2099 vs 1961-1990 Source : Somot and al. 2007 The impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean environment will relate particularly to: • Water, via a change of its cycle due to a rise in evaporation and a decrease in rainfall. This water problem will be of crucial importance with regard to the issue of sustainable development in the region; • Soil, via the acceleration of already existing desertification phenomena; • Land and marine biological diversity (animal and plant), via a displacement northwards and in altitude of certain species, extinction of less mobile or more climate sensitive species, and emergence of new species; • Forests, via a rise in fire hazards and parasite risks. iv
5. Page 5: These impacts will exacerbate already existing pressures on the natural environment connected with anthropogenic activities. Climate change will have impacts particularly on: agriculture and fishery (reduction of yields), tourism attractiveness (heat waves, water scarcity), coastal areas and infrastructures (significant exposure to the action of waves, coastal storms and other extreme weather events, rise in sea level), human health (heat waves), the energy sector (water needs for power plants, hydropower and increased consumption). The more vulnerable Mediterranean areas will be those of North Africa adjacent to desert areas, the major deltas (those of the Nile, the Po and the Rhone, for instance), the coastal areas (Northern rim and Southern rim of the Mediterranean basin), as well as the high-demographic growth and socially- vulnerable areas (Southern and Eastern rim, densely populated cities and suburbs). The Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs) appear to be more vulnerable to climate change than the Northern Mediterranean Countries (NMCs). Indeed, they are, on the one hand, more exposed to accelerated desertification, soil aridity and water scarcity and, on the other hand, presenting economic structures that are more strongly dependent on natural resources, as well as technical and financial capacities that are too limited to help implement large-scale adaptation options. Nile Delta, potential impact of sea level rise Source: UNEP/GRID – Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. CO2 emissions not under control and a risk-ridden energy scenario In 2000, seventy two per cent (72%) of the Mediterranean green house gas (GHG) emissions were due to CO2 connected with energy use (77% in the NMCs and 64% in the SEMCs). In 2025, the CO2 emissions due to energy use will be twice as high as they were in 1990 (OME/ MEO). The share of the SEMCs in the total emissions generated in the Mediterranean would be of about 50% in 2025. In 2006, the NMCs accounted for about 2/3 (two thirds) of the CO2 emissions due to energy use of the whole Mediterranean basin (OME/ MEO). However, the growth of CO2 emissions seems to be far more rapid in the SEMCs than in the NMCs. Indeed, while the NMCs reported an increase by 18% between 1990 and 2004, the emissions of the SEMCs increased by 58% over the same period. This growth rate is twenty points higher than the world rate (WRI). Electricity and heating are the main contributor to the rise in emissions between 1990 and 2004 in the SEMCs. In the NMCs, the chief contributor is the transport sector. v
6. Page 6: CO2 emission from energy use: variation by sector CO2 emission from energy use, Mio. T. CO2, 1971-2025, between 1990 and 2004, Mio t. CO2 trend scenario Source: computed by Plan Bleu from WRI data. Source : OME. The updated energy trend scenario of the Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie (2007), based on the aggregate of the evolutions estimated by the countries and by the major energy companies, reveals the following: • In 2006, fossil energies (oil, gas, coal) dominated the energy supply, accounting for as much as 80% for the whole Mediterranean countries, and for as much as 94% for the SEMCs alone (75% for the NMCs). The primary energy consumption per capita is 3.3 times lower in the SEMCs than in the NMCs; • By 2025, the weight of fossil energies is likely to stabilize at equivalent levels. The share of coal (high CO2 emitter) persists in the energy mix due to its envisaged use for power production; • The primary energy demand in the Mediterranean basin is likely to multiply by 1.5 between 2006 and 2025 and by 2.2 in the fast-developing SEMCs and whose population is markedly on the increase; • The energy demand is characterized by a rise in demand on electricity that is much more rapid than the growth of demand on primary energy or population growth. It is likely to be multiplied by 2.6 between 2006 and 2025 in the SEMCs, due in particular to a tripling of consumption in Turkey, Tunisia and Algeria and a doubling in Egypt and Morocco. Irrespective of the evolutions on global level, in the Mediterranean, the tensions already prevalent in matter of energy are likely to become significantly more acute if the trend scenario obtains, particularly through the following developments: • Increase in CO2 emissions and an exacerbation of local atmospheric pollutions; • Greater energy dependence of importing countries, more felt by importing SEMCs (passing from 77% in 2006 to 88% in 2025) than by importing NMCs (passing from 68% to73%, over the same period); • Social and economic risks connected with the rise in supply costs and its incidence on the energy bill of the countries, households and enterprises; • Impacts of climate change on the energy system: via, on the one hand, the power production and infrastructures and, on the other hand, the growth in energy demand. vi
7. Page 7: Primary energy demand : baseline scenario up to 2025 The seven main energy consumer in the Mediterranean Source: OME. Investing today in energy efficiency (EE) and in renewable energies (RE) presents real economic advantages for the time frame 2015 The economic simulations conducted reveal that a high potential of economic return lies on the demand side (simulation for an improvement of energy intensity by 10% within 10 years), based on energy efficiency actions, and that a rather modest effort in terms of RE (putting up the share of the solar, wind and geothermal to slightly over 1.1% of primary energy), allows a non negligible gain. An extrapolation to the MEDA countries of the aggregate results obtained for 3 countries (Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt) reveals that aggregate actions would allow as from 2015 an annual gain on actions of about 30 billion dollars with a barrel at 120$ with respect to a situation where the current trend persists (to 43 to 49 billion USD with a barrel at 175 USD) . About 36 million tonne oil equivalent (TOE) would be saved, and a drop by 130 million tons of CO2 emissions would be observed. This “cost of non action” is equivalent to the GDP 2005 of Tunisia which amounted to 28.7 billion dollars. During this same year, CO2 emissions due to energy use were about 20 million tons in the latter country. This “cost of non action” remains to be compared with the costs of the actions that need to be conducted in order to achieve the objectives of improvement of energy intensity and promotion of RE. The national analyses (Egypt and Tunisia) conducted within the framework of this report reveal that: • In Tunisia, the cost of saving the equivalent of one TOE thanks to energy management actions is about 40 euros ; • In Egypt, the cost of saving one TOE based on renewable energies (wind energy) is estimated as 50 euros; to save one TOE based on energy efficiency actions, the cost is estimated as between 20 and 30 euros; • The investments necessary to step up the contribution of RE and EE are likely to amount, for the periods analysed (2008-2011 for Tunisia, 2008-2015 for Egypt) to 10 and 13%, respectively, of the amounts of investment envisaged in the energy sector over the same period and would need to be outlaid in addition to the latter. To the purely economic and financial advantages, there must be added potential fringe benefits in terms of employment and development (industry and services), which have already been observed in vii
8. Page 8: countries that have set up dedicated vocational training schemes (Tunisia, Morocco), and for the health of local population. Further, there must also be added the potential financial gain that would be possible within the framework of the Clean Development Mechanism. Awareness is on the increase, but progress in terms of EE and RE remains limited Awareness about the importance of easing the energy constraints and the obviousness of the link between environment and development in the Mediterranean is on the increase. On the Northern rim, in the European Union, the adoption of drastic measures for the development of energy efficiency, promotion of renewable energies and reduction of GHG emissions attest to this awareness. On national level, several SEMCs are also geared up for a greater energy sobriety. Basin-wide, and on the political level, the Share of RE in the primary energy consumption (%) adoption in November 2005 of the “Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development” (MSSD) by the contracting parties to the the Barcelona Convention is a real signal. It proposes, on the one hand, improving energy intensity by 1 to 2% per year and, on the other hand, reaching a rate of 7% for RE in the total primary energy demand by 2015. With reference to the objectives of RE and Source: OME. EE of the MSSD and to the Plan Bleu Report of 2005, one observes the following: • In the SEMCs, with very few exceptions, concrete applications of RE are on the increase, but remain limited. The share of RE (hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal) in the consumption of primary energy passed from 2.5% in 2000 to 2.8% in 2006, which remains in line with the MSSD objective of 7% by 2015; • Energy intensity in the Mediterranean countries as a whole was up by 0.3% per year between 1992 and 2003, which is far short of the 1 to 2% growth rate put forward by the MSSD. Besides, the tapping of the EE potential seems to be “neglected” by comparison with the development of RE.Un cadre institutionnel et règlementaire à finaliser et des barrières économiques et financières à lever An institutional and legal framework to be finalised and economic and financial impediments to be lifted Energy efficiency options seem, therefore, to be still under-tapped. Yet, the several projects implemented and the experiences of a few countries in certain dedicated sectors (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Israel, for instance), prove that RE and EE are proven, appropriate and advantageous options. The challenge for the region remains a massive generalisation of success stories, the creation of a Mediterranean RE and EE market, and a focus of investments on RE and EE. viii
9. Page 9: The obstacles on national level, as identified in this report, relate to: • The institutional and legal frameworks necessary for the development of a real energy efficiency market which, despite the progress made, are still often incomplete, little visible and—at times— instable; • Lack of information on the importance of the economic and financial gains for both investors and consumers of energy efficiency actions; • Economic impediments: subsidies for fossil energies in several SEMCs lead to fairly low end-user price; besides, a low efficiency of the economic and financial incentives for RE and EE is sometimes observed. A strong political will on national level is indispensable to overcome these impediments. Regional and international cooperation has no doubt a significant role to play, especially by acting as a lever and facilitating transfer of technology and know-how between the Northern rim, where technologies are available—for RE, for instance—, and the Southern rim where natural conditions are more favourable and energy efficiency potentials more important. In future—subject to convergence of the legal frameworks between the countries of the region—export of “green” electricity from the Southern rim to the Northern rim, and the European Union, as a whole, could become a reality, especially via the development of the solar sector. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is also an instrument that needs to be better tapped in the region. It is no longer possible to consider the development of the energy system independently from the other sectors In order to yield significant effects, the measures outlined above must be accompanied by evolutions in several strategic sectors for which energy efficiency and renewable energies can be considered, not only as measures of reduction of CO2 emissions, but also as measures of adaptation to climate change. The report analyses the implications of climate change for the linkages between energy and water, woodlands, tourism and urban areas. Thus, electricity needs for water production and mobilisation, which currently account for about 10% of the power demand of the SEMCs, is likely to account for 20% of it for the time-frame 2025. This trend could be curbed, firstly, by the implementation of policies of rational water use and, secondly, by the use of RE and most energy-efficient technologies for the mobilisation of non conventional water. ix
10. Page 10: Water and electricity demand in the SEMC, trend scenario up to Cities of Mediterranean countries up to 2030 2025 200 180 160 140 km3/year 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2025 Water demand 1000 800 600 TWh 400 200 0 2000 2025 Electricity demand for water Total electricity demand Source : OME, Plan Bleu. Source : Plan Bleu d’après Géopolis 1998, ONU, World Urbanization Prospects : The 2005 revision. x
11. Page 11: GENERAL CONCLUSION The Mediterranean, and more especially the Southern and Eastern rim, is and will be more affected by climate change than most other regions of the world in the course of the 21st century. The impacts of the rise in temperatures, the decrease in rainfall, the multiplication of the number and intensity of extreme events and the possible rise in sea level overlap and amplify the already existing pressures of anthropogenic origin on the natural environment. Through the crucial issue of scarcity of water resources, their impacts are fraught with consequences in the 21st century for human activities, in particular agriculture, fishery, tourism, infrastructures, urbanised coastal areas and hydropower production. In order to minimize as much as possible the economic losses and damages, several adaptation options must be thought out and implemented. Energy lies at the heart of the climate change issue. On the one hand, it is the main GHG emitting sector, and CO2 emissions in the future are likely to increase much more rapidly than the global average. On the other hand, hydropower production—relatively significant in certain countries (13% of power production in the SEMCs)—is affected by the climate as well as by the plant cooling constraints. Lastly, the energy demand (in particular, electricity) which is growing at a very high pace in the region, is likely to be further accelerated by the additional demand necessary to lessen the impacts of climate change (water desalination, air-conditioning of buildings, . . . etc). Developing renewable energies on a large scale, granting priority order to energy efficiency in order to gain control over demand and CO2 emissions, and easing energy constraints, all constitute today an economic opportunity for the SEMCs. The costs of non action show that, investing today in this field can generate economic benefits of about 30 billion $ within the fairly close time frame of 2015 (with a barrel at 120 USD). Besides, saving one TOE costs 4 to 5 times less than mobilizing one additional TOE of fossil energy. In the SEMCs—now in fast development—, several anticipation possibilities exist for the 7 to 10 coming years in order to gain control both on rising consumption and increasing CO2 emissions, and to mitigate the vulnerability of the energy sector. The energy efficiency (EE) option is possible at once and presents the highest cost/effectiveness ratio, particularly in the building sector (solar water heating, low consumption lighting, insulation of buildings), but also in the industry and the transport sectors. The renewable energies (RE) option is also possible at once, concurrently with other sectors. The solar sector is particularly interesting, not only on national level, but also for the development of a Euro-Mediterranean renewable electricity market. Accelerated penetration of natural gas and/or the rehabilitation of older plants are also solutions to reduce CO2 emissions. Other options, such as that of the capture and storage of carbon to mitigate the emissions due to the use of coal for power production, seem to be still quite costly and uncertain, and are unlikely to report a large-scale development in the SEMCs within the time frame 2020-2025. Lastly, the options taken—particularly in the sectors of “water”, urbanisation and tourism (transport, land use planning, buildings)—will determine the future growth of energy consumption and the vulnerability of the region vis-à-vis climate change. They can no longer be addressed independently from energy issues. To date, given the constraints and uncertainties—both climate and energy related—and the growth of energy demand in the SEMCs, stepping up the role of RE and EE in all sectors becomes more a necessity than a choice. xi
12. Page 12: GENERAL INTRODUCTION Context The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has confirmed in its Report 4 (AR4, 2007) that the rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere was due to anthropogenic activity—in particular energy consumption and production—and that, consequently, temperatures are likely to significantly rise in the coming years. The Mediterranean—especially its Southern and Eastern rims—is likely to be more affected by climate change than most other regions of the globe in the 21st century. The impacts of the rise in temperature, drop in rainfall, increase in number and intensity of extreme events, as well as of a possible rise in sea level, could thus overlap and exacerbate the pressures due to anthropogenic activities that are already exerted on the natural environment. Manifested above all in the central issue of water resources scarcity, the impacts should be particularly strong on agriculture, fishery, tourism, infrastructures, urbanised coastal zones and hydropower production. In order to minimise as much as possible the ensuing economic damage and losses, several adaptation options must be identified and implemented. Energy lies at the heart of the climate change issue. Indeed, the energy sector is the main GHG emitter—with CO2 emissions increasing more rapidly in the Mediterranean than on global level, on average—and climate change directly influences energy production and consumption (especially electricity). Accordingly, in the face of climate change and its unquestionable reality, the region must, on the one hand, adapt its energy system and, on the other hand, opt for low-CO2 emissions energy solutions in order to participate in the climate change mitigation efforts. In view of the above, Plan Bleu and the European Investment Bank (EIB) have cooperated to produce a Report on “Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean”. Drafting of the Report In order to draft this Report, Plan Bleu has enlisted the contribution of regional institutions and national experts knowledgeable in the field of climate change and energy (MEDIAS, the Mediterranean Energy Observatory (OME), the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), the Tunisian National Agency for Energy Management (ANME), FEMISE/ Mediterranean Institute. In total, twenty five contributors have been directly involved in drafting the Report, of whom an International Steering Committee—composed of IPCC, OME, ENDA NGO and national government experts—has supervised and directed the works. This Report follows upon the previous works of Plan Bleu on energy, sustainable development and climate change. In particular, it draws upon the Plan Bleu Report entitled “The Mediterranean: Plan Bleu Environment and Development Outlook” (2005), as well as upon the activities conducted in 2006-2007, as part of the follow-up on the Chapters entitled “Energy and Climate Change” and “Water”, of the Mediterranean Strategy on Sustainable Development (MSSD). Besides the mining of regional data bases (EUROSTAT/MEDSTAT, MEO (OME), Plan Bleu, FEMISE) and international data bases (World Bank, World Resource Institute, UNO, IMF), several sets of information and case studies have been conducted or compiled during expert workshops (particularly in partnership with MEDITEP and ENERGAÏA). xii
13. Page 13: The Report comprises 11 chapters. Each of them can be read separately from the others, though the set of chapters does constitute a consistent and cohesive whole. The Report brings into play a variety of methodological approaches: climate models, economic models and simulations, and prospective and systemic energy projections (sector-system interactions) and endeavours to quantify the energy (and related emissions) trends, thus providing detailed quantification of the region’s past trends (over the last 35 years) and future prospects (up to 2025). Report objectives and contents The Report covers the 21 Mediterranean riparian countries, though with a special focus on the Southern and Eastern rims of the Mediterranean basin. 1 It is divided into three parts. Part I provides a summary overview of the scientific results related to the possible climate evolution in the Mediterranean in the 21st century. The impacts associated with the possible evolutions are analysed. Their expected effects in economic terms are addressed via a review of the economic literature on the costs of climate change. Lastly, this Part provides both a comprehensive and detailed picture of the past and future trends of GHG and CO2 emissions due to energy use. Parts II and III are dedicated to energy issues. Thus, Part II examines the possible options offered to the region, as of now, to gain control over the growth of CO2 emissions due to energy use. Economic costs-advantages simulations and quantifications are conducted for various options and alternative scenarios for the time frame 2015 for the whole region. Besides, two case studies (one for Tunisia, the other for Egypt) help refine the analysis of alternative scenarios and their costs on country level. Part III highlights the impacts and the vulnerability of the Mediterranean energy system (production, distribution, consumption) in the face of the inevitable climate change in the region. Drawing upon case studies, this Part underscores the fact that the power production sector is itself disrupted by climate change. It also shows how development options in key sectors/resources (forestry, water, building, tourism, city) in a climate change context can in the long run strongly impact energy demand. 1 Mediterranean riparian countries: Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (SEMCs): Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Palestinian Territories, Tunisia, and Turkey. Northern Mediterranean Countries (NMCs): Bosnia-Herzegovena, Cyprus, Croatia, Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Malta, Monaco, and Slovenia. This Report also includes information on Jordan, a non Mediterranean riparian country but participating in the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. xiii
14. Page 15: PART 1 Climate change in the Mediterranean: scientific knowledge, impacts and green house gas emissions CHAPTER 1 Mediterranean Basin: Climate change and impacts during the 21st Century CHAPTER 2 Review of the Economic Literature on Impacts of Climate Change in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries CHAPTER 3 Carbon Dioxide emissions from energy use in the Mediterranean economies: trends and patterns
15. Page 16: INTRODUCTION Part I objective is to assess climate change in the Mediterranean, its physical and economic impacts and also to consider the region’s contribution to this global phenomenon. Chapter 1 analyses scientific results form climate models, the impacts on the natural environment of possible changes and their physical effects on human activities. Chapter 2 studies the economic impact of climate change in the Mediterranean. From a review of the existing literature, it highlights cost of climate change, as computed by economists. Chapter 3 depicts the contribution of the region to global climate change through a detailed analysis of greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions.
16. Page 17: CHAPTER 1 Mediterranean Basin: Climate Change and Impacts during the 21st Century Patrick VAN GRUNDERBEECK, Medias France, Director, Météo-France Yves M. TOURRE, Medias-France, Expert Météo-France/LDEO University of Columbia ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Patrick VanGrunderbeeck and Yves M. Tourre (MEDIAS-France, Météo-France & LDEO of Columbia University) would like to thank Henri-Luc Thibault (Plan Bleu, Director), Céline Gimet, Stéphane Quefelec and Patrice Miran (Plan Bleu, experts), and Samuel Somot (Météo-France) with whom they had fruitful discussions and feedbacks.
17. Page 19: PART 1 Climate change in the Mediterranean: scientific knowledge, impacts and green house gas emissions CHAPTER 1 Mediterranean Basin: Climate change and impacts during the 21st Century TABLE OF CONTENTS KEY MESSAGES 8  INTRODUCTION 10  I. PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN DURING THE 21ST CENTURY 12  1. From global to regional scales 12  2. Modelling issues for the MEditerranean basin 15  3. Facts on climate change 16  4. Climate change projections : recent results 18  5. Uncertainties on climate change in the Mediterranean basin 32  6. Conclusion 33  II. ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN 34  1. The overall picture 34  2. Impacts on hydrological cycle 37  3. Imacts on ecosystems and biodiversity 43  4. Impacts on agriculture 47  5. Impacts on coastal areas, low-lying areas, related infrastructures, transport 49  6. Impacts on public health 52  7. Impacts, policy and adaptation 55  III. CONCLUSION 58  BIBLIOGRAPHY 59  1-5
18. Page 20: TABLE OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure 1 - Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for global surface warming (°C) during the 21st century ........................................................................................................................................................................... 12  Figure 2 - Sea-atmosphere interface processes and associated spatio-temporal scales for the Mediterranean basin .................................................................................................................................................... 14  Figure 3 - The North Africa - West Asia (NAWA) index: large dots within key ovals represent the two NAWA poles as identified by Paz et al. (2003) ...................................................................................................... 20  Figure 4 - Mediterranean sea level changes as observed during the first seven years of the TOPEX/Poseidon project ........................................................................................................................................ 22  Figure 5 - From the use of four altimetry satellites ..................................................................................................... 23  Figure 6 – (top) Number of summer days with temperatures above 25°C; (bottom) Number of summer days with temperatures above 30°C.......................................................................................................... 24  Figure 7 – Compared yearly number of days with temperature larger than 30°C between present and the second part of the 21st century .......................................................................................................................... 26  Figure 8 – (top) Annual mean precipitation (in %) and (bottom) temperature changes (in °C) over Europe and the Mediterranean basin from a range of 22 models ....................................................................... 27  Figure 9 – Simulated precipitation changes (in %) during winter (DJF, top) and summer (JJA, bottom): 2080-2100 minus 1961–1990 periods ...................................................................................................................... 29  Figure 10 – Seasonal temperature in °C (winter, top; summer, bottom) anomalies .............................................. 30  Figure 11 – Seasonal precipitation anomalies in mm/day (winter, top; summer, bottom) ................................... 31  Figure 12– Water availability (or change in annual run-off in %) during the middle of the 21st century following the B1 (low estimates) and A2 (high estimates) IPCC scenario ......................................................... 35  Figure 13– Flow of growing uncertainty from general socioeconomic assumptions to regional interpretation of results including impacts, going from GCMs to RCMs.......................................................... 36  Figure 14 - The “vulnerability components” from the merging of potential impacts and adaptive capacity .......................................................................................................................................................................... 36  Figure 15 - The multidisciplinary approach for decision makers, including linkages between regional/local policy background and best practices guidelines for the integrated design and implementation of DSS (Decision Support Tool) for IWRM strategies (Integrated Water Resource Management) in the Mediterranean basin ............................................................................................................... 39  Figure 16 - Example of chlorides (left) and boron (right) toxicity (damages in leaf reduction, and/or health) on vegetation such as citrus trees (left) and avocados ............................................................................ 42  Figure 17 – Crop relative-yield (in %, ordinates) versus salinity computed from conductivity (EC) in saturated soil (in dS/m, abscissa). ............................................................................................................................. 47  Figure 18 – Decrease of fresh water (blue) input and increase of brackish water (green) (in million m3/year, ordinates) in the EM during the last 15 years, with expected values in 2010.................................... 48  Figure 19 – Impacts on coastal roads and buildings from extreme weather events (i.e., storm, sea-surge) on the Mediterranean Littoral ................................................................................................................................... 50  Figure 20 – Sand dune erosion, from storm and sea surge actions, from the “S-beach model” of the “Liteau Program” ........................................................................................................................................................ 50  Figure 21 - One hundred fifty years of observations on shoreline erosion in the north-western Mediterranean. ............................................................................................................................................................. 50  Figure 22 – Primary energy demand: trends and forecasts in Mtoe (or Million Tons of Oil Equivalent) for the NMC (Northern Mediterranean Countries, in blue) and SEMC (South-Eastern Mediterranean Countries, in green) since the early 70s ......................................................................................... 52  Figure 23 – Snapshot Chlorophyll-a (in mg/m3) distribution in the Mediterranean basin on October, 10, 2006, from MODIS-AQUA and using the NASA OC3 algorithm.............................................................. 54  Figure 24 – Mean Damage Ratio (MDR, ordinates in %) as a function of standards of construction and local peak gust velocities (abscissa, in m/s) ............................................................................................................ 56  1-6
19. Page 21: PART 1 Climate change in the Mediterranean: scientific knowledge, impacts and green house gas emissions CHAPTER 1 Mediterranean Basin: Climate change and impacts during the 21st Century Table 1 - Sea-Surface Temperature (SST, in °C) .......................................................................................................... 20  Table 2– Temperature and rainfall extremes in countries from the Mediterranean basin .................................... 25  Table 3 – Water resources from Mediterranean countries ......................................................................................... 38  Table 4 – Water use (total water extraction in hm3) from Mediterranean countries, with irrigated land surfaces ..........................................................................................................................................................................40  Table 5– Yearly mean river run-offs (in m3/s) for key rivers (and black sea) fresh water input around the Mediterranean basin, following the A2 IPCC scenario .................................................................................. 41  Table 6 - Number of people (in millions) to be exposed to water-stress by 2055, in the Mashriq, and using results from 6 models, following both A2 and B2 scenarii ........................................................................ 41  Table 7 - Major impacts on hydrological cycles, in some Mediterranean deltas, gulfs, countries, wetlands, coastlines .....................................................................................................................................................57  1-7
20. Page 22: KEY MESSAGES Changed in the far distant past and in recent period: In the Mediterranean, the far distant past has witnessed some major climatic changes (with temperatures which could on average be 8°C below current ones (20, 000 years ago) or 1 - 3°C higher (6,000 years ago). Landscape, fauna and flora and coastal layout were very different depending on the period (due to variations in sea level of several tens of metres). These developments took hundreds if not thousands of years. The current situation, however, and the one expected to prevail over coming years is marked by the speed of the changes coming about. This factor amplifies the expected impact since relatively rapid developments give ecosystems or societies no chance to acclimatise and gradually adapt. Moreover, we are witnessing meteorological events on an unprecedented scale. In June and July 2007, for example, two extreme heat-waves struck south-eastern Europe, with daily highs of over 40°C/104°F even climbing to 45°C/113°F in Bulgaria. During the 20th century, air temperature in the Mediterranean basin was observed to have risen by 1.5-4°C depending on the sub-region. Over the same period and with clear acceleration since 1970, temperatures in south-western Europe (Iberian peninsula, south of France) rose by almost 2°C. The same warming effect can also be seen in North Africa, albeit more difficult to quantify given the more patchy nature of the observation system. Some uncertainties but a set of consensus making the Mediterranean a climate change “hot spot” for the 21 century: Uncertainty about regional climate forecasts in the Mediterranean basin for the 21st century can largely be attributed to the fact that numerical methods and disaggregation techniques differ from one regional model to the next. Similarly, uncertainty regarding the multiplicity of areas affected is due to the fact that interaction and retroaction between the ‘sphere’ components (physical systems) comprising the climate (including the biosphere) are highly complex. The conclusions drawn by climate specialists converge, however, on several points of general consensus: • Even if the European Union’s objective of not exceeding a global average temperature increase of 2°C is met, temperature increases in the Mediterranean are likely to be above 2°C and, because of the ecological and socio- economic characteristics of the areas, the impact will be more marked than in many other regions of the world; The Mediterranean has thus been qualified as the « hot spot for climate change» (Giorgi, 2007). • A general decrease in average rainfall is expected throughout the Mediterranean basin. • The most vulnerable areas of the Mediterranean are the north African ones bordering on the desert areas, the major deltas (Nile, Po and Rhone, for example), the coastal zones (both Northern and Southern shores) as well as socially vulnerable areas and those with rapid demographic growth (southern and eastern banks, dense towns and suburbs) (IPCC AR4, 2007). • The impact of climate change on the environment is already noticeable in the Mediterranean, and is already producing observable effects on human activity. • Given the uncertainty previously referred to, more optimistic or more pessimistic scenarios (breakdown scenarios with abrupt and rapid change) around the central ones presented here are not to be ruled out. Thus a consensus has been reached on temperature increase and precipitation decrease in the MB as a whole. • According the 4th IPCC Report under the scenario A1B, air temperature will increase between 2.2°C and 5.1°C in the Southern Europe and Mediterranean region if the 2080-2099 period is compared to that of 1980-1999 (with some sub- regions differences). • The same projections assume a decrease for the precipitations between 4 and 27% in the Southern Europe and Mediterranean region (while the Northern Europe region will record an increase between 0 and 16%). An increase of drought periods (associated to land degradation) being declined by an high number of days recording more than 30°C is also expected (Giannakopoulos and al. 2005). • Extreme event such as heat wawes, drought or floods could be more frequent and stronger. • As for the sea level trend/change there is still a need for longer time-series from satellite altimetry and for an improved in-situ tide-gauge network to attain robust conclusions. Only a few climatological studies estimate that a mean 35 cm sea level increase could occur during the 21st century. Water at the heart of the main expected impacts of climate change on the natural environment in the Mediterranean, which are: • Water: A rapid change in the water cycle due to increased evaporation and less rainfall; • Soil: A drop in water storage capacity (because of changes in porosity as a result of temperature change, making it drier), accelerated desertification which is already underway (soil over-use and depletion); • Land and marine biodiversity (animal and plant): A northwards and altitude shift of certain species, extinction of the most climate-sensitive or less mobile species and the appearance of new ones; 1-8
21. Page 23: PART 1 Climate change in the Mediterranean: scientific knowledge, impacts and green house gas emissions CHAPTER 1 Mediterranean Basin: Climate change and impacts during the 21st Century • Forests: increased fire hazard and risk of parasites; • Living beings: animal and human health issues due to repeated thermal stress (heat-waves) and the possible appearance of infectious and parasitic disease in areas not usually affected to date. Impacts with major direct physical consequences for human activity Since these impacts add to and intensify the pressures which already exist on the natural environment, their effects are therefore expected to become even more marked over the 21st century which will have major direct physical consequences for human activity. The water issue, already central to sustainable development concerns in the Mediterranean (particularly to the South) because it is so scarce, will be a key factor through which the effects of climate change on human activity are expected to spread. The main human activities and areas directly affected by the effects of climate change in the Mediterranean are: • Agriculture and fisheries: Agricultural and fishing yields are expected to drop (as a result of the accumulated conditions related to temperature, rainfall, the state of the soil and the behaviour of animal and plant species). In Morocco, for example, the Cropwat model (FAO, 2001) applied to winter cereal crops under 3rd IPCC report scenarios show yield decreases by 2020 in the order of 10% for a normal year and 50% for a dry one and a 30% drop in national production. In a drier, hotter climate, crops will require more water. It can also be presumed that if fish populations change (through species migration and/or changes to the food chain) to the benefit of species of sub-tropical origin, this will in turn profoundly affect catch value and quantity. • Tourism: The climate is an essential component in the choice of tourist destination. If heat-waves and summer temperatures increase, creating problems with water resources, the Mediterranean regions could end up becoming less attractive than more northern climes. Some estimates suggest that 1°C of warming by 2050 could drive tourist numbers on the southern shores down by 10%. • The coastal zones: Greater exposure of infrastructure to wave action and coastal storms could be cited as one of the most serious effects. The same problems will be faced by port installations (Alexandria, La Golette), lagoon areas (Venice), and deltas (Nile, Rhone). The costliest effects for infrastructure will be the ones related to extreme, intense but short-lived events. • Energy: The energy production sector is the industrial activity most physically affected by the effects of climate change. One consequence of increased hydric stress coupled with the increased frequency of extreme climatic events would be a drop in hydro-electric potential and the cooling potential of thermal plants (reduced yield). The probable increase in the number of extreme events would entail re-scaling or modification (e.g.: dams designed for much higher peak flows than is currently the case …). The Mediterranean basin can thus be seen as a “laboratory” for assessing vulnerability and impact of climate change and for introducing adaptation and emission reducing measures. 1-9
22. Page 24: INTRODUCTION Context Ibn Khaldun during the 14th Century, promoted better and more extensive knowledge of the political, socioeconomic activities between the East and the West, Europe and North Africa, all ‘united’ by the Mediterranean basin. His important work was based upon the fact that one thing cannot be understood without the other, and beyond conflicts that did take place around the Mediterranean basin, intense and productive framework of cultural, commercial and human relationships in all direction, were linked no doubt to climate variability/change. The Mediterranean basin (MB) and its riparian countries, solid borders and constantly moving people, can be associated to a so-called ‘Liquid Continent’ according to the political and cultural writer Bruno Etienne 1. It should be emphasized that, during the past 50 years, climate change already displayed its ‘signatures’ onto the Mediterranean Sea. Besides the possible scenarii and impacts presented here, the Mediterranean basin is seen as a natural \"laboratory/incubator\" to evaluate such changes and forthcoming ones. The MB is a highly heterogeneous region where natural and anthropogenic activities interact in complex ways with climate variability/change on different spatio-temporal scales with a panoply of multidisciplinary impacts. The following comments and examples illustrate the complexity of interactions between weather/climate and natural environment: in the Mediterranean Sea, would fast warming conditions enhance the hydrological cycle? There has been a 3% increase of the global recycling rate of water from 1988 to 1994 (Chahine, Haskins and Fetzer, 1997). Warmer dry air advected from Africa (Sirocco) could take up more water vapor over the sea (new results from French meteorologists). If this excess water vapor is over land, the latter could stay cooler (from larger cloudiness and/or enhanced evaporation). The above supposes that the Mediterranean basin will be exposed to enough solar radiation to warm up. This could happen only if cloudiness over the sea remains low over the sea. A high-resolution cloud climatology is therefore necessary for both sea and land. Precipitation must not necessarily increase with an increase in soil moisture 2 only and it might be seasonally dependent. In the recent past, climate models were not very reliable with respect to simulating the regional impacts of the increasing greenhouse effect on the Mediterranean basin (Cubasch et al., 1996). Things have change considerably since then. The most recent modelling experiments and results have indeed been able to produce invaluable information on finer spatio-temporal scales for Europe and the MB. In socioeconomic terms, there is a wide spectrum of interactions with climate variability/change and associated impacts. While such complex interactions have been established (IPCC, 4th Assessment Report, 2007), climate change is already having definite impacts on the Mediterranean basin and bordering regions. It is also important to remember that integrated impacts are also due to anthropogenic \"local\" activities responding to socioeconomic needs and are superimposed to climate change. Those multidisciplinay impacts (directly upon the environment and ecosystems, and/or upon human activities including public health issues) might then be amplified in turn, through non-linear effects. 1http://www.lapenseedemidi.org/revues/revue1/articles/19_grenade.pdf 2Water stored in/or at the continental surface and available for evaporation. The soil moisture parameter is commonly used in climate models. Today's models, which incorporate canopy and soil processes, view soil moisture as the amount held in excess of plant \"wilting point\". 1-10
23. Page 25: PART 1 Climate change in the Mediterranean: scientific knowledge, impacts and green house gas emissions CHAPTER 1 Mediterranean Basin: Climate change and impacts during the 21st Century This is why time has come for planning long-term sustainable development and adaptation for countries within the Mediterranean basin at local, national, and subregional levels. Assessing MB climate projections for the 21st century (from past studies or hindcasting, nowcasting and forecasting using latest downscaled models) along with associated multidisciplinary impacts has thus become of utmost importance. Objectives The objectives of this report are to 1) review all recent results and knowledge on climate change in the MB and to evaluate and disseminate latest input on projected climate change in the MB during the 21st century.; 2) impacts from climate change on the environment and natural ecosystems and linkages with human activities are also to be evaluated, since important socioeconomic adaptation measures are expected. Data Sources and Methodology Data and results on climate change include analyzes from paleoclimatology studies and proxies. Latest statements from the IPCC report (AR4) are also included. Climate projections for the 21st century are from global and regional climate models including those from ARPEGE-IFS. Selected results are from the main IPCC scenario: A1B, B1, and A2. Impact analyses and results are based upon multidisciplinary and sectoral applied research. Finally, results concerning post-Kyoto and from the Bali Conference are also presented. Content More specifically, issues on global climate change and linkages with regional signatures particularly over the Mediterranean basin (MB) will be presented in Section I, by using results (including uncertainties) going from general circulation models to regional (downscaled) climate models. Specific downscaling and spatio-temporal issues (geography, topography, population feedbacks) for the Mediterranean will be also discussed. Based upon historical climate (diagnostic and proxy studies) and present state of the climate, MB scenarii will be proposed for parameters such as temperature, precipitation, sea level changes (as observed from space). Based upon scientific and ongoing monitoring results, specific and regional climate projections will be proposed for the middle and the second part of the 21st century. In Section II the multidisciplinary impacts, re-grouped in two sub-sections (environmental and human activities) will be presented, namely: a) hydrological, ecosystems and biodiversity; b) agriculture (food security), infrastructures and coastlines, and public health. At the end of sub- section b, linkages between impacts, policy and adaptation measures will be discussed. 1-11
24. Page 26: I. PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN DURING THE 21ST CENTURY In this Section, the climate change projections for the MB are presented in two ways: overall evolution over the MB of physical parameters such as temperature, precipitation, sea level using latest results from global and regional (downscaled) modelling remote-sensing technology, then more specific/detailed projections for the middle and the second part of the 21st century. The latter is to be provided to be used by decision/policy makers and stakeholders at all levels for putting in place the best mitigation and adaptation procedures. 1. FROM GLOBAL TO REGIONAL SCALES The global influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is rather well known and results in an average warming of the earth’s surface. More than a century ago, the Swedish researcher Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927, Nobel prize winner in 1903), rightly suggested that our planet could be additionally warmed due to an anthropogenic increase of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. The earth’s radiative balance also needs to be taken into account, since the changing albedo from various ground and clouds coverage, absorption of energy by water vapour, aerosols, play a fundamental role in terms of energy balance. GHGs include a lot of gases such as water vapour (the most efficient one in terms of blocking infra-red radiation from planet earth), carbon dioxide and ozone, methane among others, and the observed influence from anthropogenic activity on GHGs’ concentration is sometimes difficult to model. Political, industrial and commercial interests, as well as public opinions may shadow the debate on global climate change issues. Whilst a wide range of viewpoints is issued, scientists have a major responsibility in terms of addressing those issues and quantifying associated uncertainties. At the beginning of the 21st century, it is interesting to evaluate the latest IPCC report (Fourth Assessment Report or AR4, 2007) with the difference based upon six emissions scenarii. The multi-model averages and six assessed ranges for surface warming are presented in Figure 1 (IPCC Report, 2007). Figure 1 - Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for global surface warming (°C) during the 21st century 1-12
25. Page 27: PART 1 Climate change in the Mediterranean: scientific knowledge, impacts and green house gas emissions CHAPTER 1 Mediterranean Basin: Climate change and impacts during the 21st Century Following six IPCC keys scenarii, namely: B1 (blue), A1T, B2, A1B (green), A2 (red), A1F1. The orange time-series assumes concentration from Year 2000 onward Source: see IPCC Report, 2007, for details By the end of that century, a spread for values of averaged surface air temperature increase exist among the six scenarii considered, ranging from nearly 2°C for the lowest scenario (so-called B1 and A2, with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.9°C) and about 4°C for the highest scenario (so-called A1F1, with a likely range of 2.4°C to 6.4°C). The scenarii rely upon hypotheses, evaluating population growth, economic and trade activities, and energy consumption. For a medium scenario (so-called A1B), the best estimate is 3.4°C (with a likely range of 2°C to 5.4°C). The ranges are due to relatively poor understanding of physical mechanisms which include feedbacks from the carbon and carbon dioxide cycles. Interestingly enough addition of feedbacks in global circulation models (GCMs), provides higher values on uncertainty ranges. Also the globally averaged warming values presented through the different scenarii seemed small (last ice age was only about 5°C colder than present). But a relatively small change in average temperature can result in much greater intensity of extreme weather events, through non-linear interactions. It is those extreme weather events (climate related) that produce many of the significant regional and local impacts that affect human society as a whole. For example, it is very likely that heatwaves will increase in intensity (possibly frequency and duration), while heavy precipitation (lack thereof) events will be distributed differently from know climatology. These projected changes in extremes will continue contributing to trends which are already observed. Projection from global assessment/analysis becomes quite complex when it is to be regionally downscaled to the Mediterranean basin (von Storch et al., 1993; Giorgi et al., 1992; Conway and Jones, 1998; Räisänen et al., 1999). Early-on, these assessments were the purposes of the ECLAT-2 3 and ACACIA 4 European projects (Parry, 2000). Scientific conclusions with managerial/impacts issues had been thus presented to the French GICC 5 project. One way to classify global climate change issues applied to the Mediterranean basin could be: • What is the regional contribution of GHGs to energy equilibrium? • What are the regional and local anthropogenic spatio-temporal evolutions? In addition, downscaling from GCMs to regional Climate Models (RCMs) and local spatio-temporal scales presents a scientific challenge in itself, since the MB represent high degrees of complexity, including processes which might be more difficult to apprehend. In (Figure 2) sea-atmospheric interactions and spatio-temporal complexity are highlighted (abscissa represents time scales from century to extreme events time scales including quasi-decadal and seasonal variability; adapted from HYMEX, 2007). Also understanding the MB climate change and the regional ‘global carbon cycle’ remains a challenge. Carbon stocks in known reservoirs and carbon flows between the latter and relevant to the anthropogenic perturbation are difficult to assess (Schimel et al., 1996). For example it is often assumed in ‘balancing carbon flux’ computation that the net ocean carbon uptake of the anthropogenic perturbation equals the net air-sea input plus runoff minus sedimentation (Sarmiento and Sundquist, 1992). Finally the important anthropogenic activity per-se in the MB is to greatly influence the so-called ‘natural climate state’ of the basin itself. 3 \"A Concerted Action towards the Improved Understanding and Application of Results from Climate Model Experiments on European Climate Change Impacts Research\". A secondary objective is to keep EU research into the climate change abreast of developments in climate modelling and informed about the availability of results from new climate change experiments performed in Europe and worldwide. 4 \"A Concerted Action Toward a Comprehensive Climate Impacts and Adaptation Assessment for the European Union\". 5 \"Gestion et Impacts du Changement Climatique\". French initiative on climate change and multidisciplinary impacts. 1-13
26. Page 28: Figure 2 - Sea-atmosphere interface processes and associated spatio-temporal scales for the Mediterranean basin Spatial scales are on the ordinates going from basin scales to coastal areas, whilst temporal scales on the abscissa going from century, decadal, seasonal, to extreme events ( Source: adapted from HYMEX, 2007 1-14
27. Page 29: PART 1 Climate change in the Mediterranean: scientific knowledge, impacts and green house gas emissions CHAPTER 1 Mediterranean Basin: Climate change and impacts during the 21st Century 2. MODELLING ISSUES FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN 2.1. Global and regional climate modeling While GCMs are meant to deal with global issues, each one presents limitations for regional applications. Indeed, some processes and physical mechanisms in the atmosphere, ocean and on land occur at much smaller scales (such as ocean-atmosphere wave propagations). GCMs may of course be improved (i.e., better parameterization of advection, subduction in the ocean…), but they will always have intrinsic limitations. Moreover, when applied to regions for impact studies, they do not always include pertinent information for a given geographic scale. For example, southern Italy or Sicily, are not well represented in most global climate models, while the representation of major mountain ranges (such as the Alps or the Atlas mountain ranges) which directly influence regional climate, is over-simplified. 2.2. Using and improving RCM When dealing with the Mediterranean basin, where the typical resolution ranges from kilometers to tens of kilometers, RCMs must be used. These models can have a resolution of 50 km x 50 km over the region of interest, and are sometimes downscaled to 10x10 km, though over limited areas. RCMs in the Mediterranean basin are being developed. Some are forced by the thermal state of the sea, while fully coupled models will have to adequately describe the deep oceanic convection and the variability of the important THC (i.e., at first on seasonal and inter-annual time scales). Improving RCMs is an active research field for the Mediterranean basin. According to Somot (2005), important factors to optimize and improve the quality of an RCM over the Mediterranean basin are: • Improving understanding and simulation of the THC using ARPEGE-Climat and NEMO , and computing air-ocean fluxes; • Identifying the systematic errors of the models, running simulations over several years or decades and testing the sensitivity of the model (feedbacks); • Choosing specific regions forced by output from ERA40; • Evaluating uncertainties and the spatio-temporal dependencies of the model; • Quantifying global climate change impacts on bio-chemistry; • Understanding and reproducing linkages between at least the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean basin. Validation will of course be a critical step when comparing results with other RCMs at least. Past RCM inter-comparison studies were conducted over Europe by Christensen et al. (1998) and led to a good simulation of the air temperature increase (with nevertheless a +/-2°C standard deviation), except over south-eastern Europe including the Mediterranean basin during summer.. 1-15
28. Page 30: 3. FACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE 3.1. Paleoclimatology and proxies In order to refer to past climate conditions without instrumental measurements, scientists have used natural environment records (or \"proxies\" such as tree rings, coral growth, isotope ratios…). Recent climate changes in the natural record gathered using proxy data can thus be calibrated using the 140- year global time-series of sea level pressure and sea surface temperature (Kaplan et al., 1998). To understand and predict potential upcoming changes in the climate system, a more complete understanding of seasonal-to-century scale climate variability and diagnostic studies are necessary (Tourre and White, 2006). Some studies have indicated that the earth has warmed by 0.4°C to 0.8°C from 1860 to the present. It is interesting to evaluate the interactions and feedback mechanisms between low-frequency climate oscillations (such as the multi-decadal signal, among others) and that due to anthropogenic activities and the industrial revolution. Physical laws are independent of time. Thus, any model which can be used to predict future climate can be checked \"backwards\" using paleoclimate records (so-called hindcasting). Such an invaluable validation can help answer questions such as: • Why is the last century climate change unprecedented when compared to changes during the last 500, 2000 and 20,000 years? • Do recent global temperatures represent new highs? • Why is the recent rate of global climate change unique? IPCC is greatly indebted to paleo-climatological findings for the consolidated information edited in its 2007 reports (AR4). These findings will be very useful for a better understanding of future climate change scenarii in the Mediterranean basin. 3.2. Past Mediterranean climate (PMIP 6), which had a double objective: Analyze the natural climate variability at a multi-millennium scale in order to estimate anthropogenic impacts, and ii) test climate model sensitivity by using regimes different to the present one (Joussaume et al., 1999). Twenty thousand years ago, cold steppes (with sparse forests) extended from the south of Spain to Caucasus. In the northern part of the Mediterranean basin, the temperature of the coldest month was 15°C lower than it is today (Peyron et al., 1998). Less water was available for vegetation. Modelling results tend to underestimate the winter coolness (-5°C instead of -15°C) and the dryness during the vegetation growing period, which can be attributed to a poor knowledge of the past thermal state of the Mediterranean Sea. 6 PMIP (Joussaume and Taylor, 2000): an international project involving members of all the major climate modeling groups worldwide under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). 1-16
29. Page 31: PART 1 Climate change in the Mediterranean: scientific knowledge, impacts and green house gas emissions CHAPTER 1 Mediterranean Basin: Climate change and impacts during the 21st Century Much more reliable results may be obtained 18,000 years ago (see Figure 3, where isotherms and coastal areas are